The US-China trade war may affect the demand for passive components. The legal person pointed out that the U.S.-China trade war and other factors have affected the market's demand for consumer electronics products. The overall observation shows that the supply and demand of chip resistors have entered a balance in the fourth quarter, and there will still be a gap between the supply and demand of MLCC next year.
A report from the local legal person investigation channel pointed out that the U.S.-China trade war and the unsmooth shipments of major U.S. chip manufacturers have made the market's demand for consumer electronic products more conservative. In addition, the supply shortage of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) for downstream assembly plants has been eased in the second half of this year.
The legal person estimates that the quarterly growth rate of MLCC prices in the fourth quarter is about low single-digit percentage points, and the price of chip resistors (R-Chip) products may be the same as that in the third quarter, and the supply and demand of chip resistors will be balanced in the fourth quarter of this year.
From the perspective of industry trends, the report shows that the demand for high-end MLCCs for mobile phones and automotive electronics will still have a 25 percent to 30 percent gap between supply and demand in the next three years. The production capacity layout of major Japanese and South Korean manufacturers is still dominated by high-end MLCCs for automobiles.
There will still be a gap between supply and demand for standard MLCC products next year, but the legal person pointed out that it is necessary to observe the factors that the market demand for consumer electronic products tends to be conservative, and it is expected that the gap between supply and demand of MLCC will be around 10 percent next year.
The third quarter of 2018 has come to an end, and the news about the shortage and price increase of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) in the market has gradually subsided. The market transaction order tends to be stable. For Taiwanese suppliers such as Yageo, Huaxinke, Heshentang, and Darfon, the flexible adjustment of production capacity in the past has reached the goal of meeting customer needs. Looking forward to 2019, how to pull the car higher Using the proportion of other niche products is the new goal that Taiwanese factories should fully sprint.
Since 2018, the price and demand of MLCC have been soaring, making various suppliers happy. Not only did they receive soft orders and the production capacity was fully loaded, but even the expansion of the procurement of machinery and equipment and ceramic powder had to rely on past business relationships to achieve their wishes. Some manufacturers even admit that the company's investment and production expansion are catching up with the level before the dotcom bubble in 2000. Since all professional forecasts believe that MLCC will be in a state of shortage for more than 1 to 2 years, of course, suppliers will increase production and expand production, and take this golden opportunity to make a lot of money.
Observing the operating performance of major Taiwanese factories this year, the legal person expects that Yageo's performance this year will likely exceed NT95 billion, and the overall gross profit margin will exceed 62 percent . new highs. Huaxinke (2492) is estimated to exceed 55 billion yuan in performance this year, and its gross profit margin may exceed 60 percent . This year's earnings per share are estimated to fall within the range of 47 to 49 yuan.
The global MLCC market continues to be in short supply. European-based foreign corporations recently estimated that South Korea's SEMCO and Yageo will be the main beneficiaries. Yageo has signed long-term contracts with major OEMs and is expected to contribute to performance from October.
Yageo will continue to expand its MLCC production capacity in the next two years. It is estimated that the monthly production capacity of MLCC will reach 50 billion by the end of this year, 60 billion by the end of 2019, and 70 billion by the end of 2020.
